Wednesday, July 1, 2015

First Read: A Tale of Two Republican Brackets

First Read is a morning briefing from Meet the Press and the NBC Political Unit on the day's most important political stories and why they matter.

A Tale of Two Republican Brackets

With Chris Christie camping out in New Hampshire and with a brand-new poll out of Iowa, here's a helpful way to look at the crowded Republican field: It's a tale of two different brackets -- Iowa and New Hampshire. About half of Republicans are betting on success in the Hawkeye State, and the other half are focused on the Granite State, with a little overlap between the two.

  • Your Iowa bracket: Scott Walker (who is leading today's new Quinnipiac poll of Iowa at 18%), Ben Carson and Donald Trump (who are tied for second at 10% each), Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal
  • Your New Hampshire bracket: Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich, George Pataki, maybe Lindsey Graham
  • Your crossovers: Rand Paul, Marco Rubio
Iowa is fascinating because you have 20% of likely caucus-goers in the Quinnipiac poll supporting either Trump or Carson, who in many ways look like placeholders for two different types of conservatives. Does that support go elsewhere as the race picks up -- to Walker, Cruz, or maybe even Rubio? As for Rubio, while we label him a crossover, ask yourself this question: How does he win the nomination without Iowa? 

Sure, he has an impressive organization in South Carolina. And a Top-3 finish in Iowa or New Hampshire would allow him to remain in the race a long time. But if he's going to win, it's going to have to start in Iowa, right?

As for New Hampshire, you're going to have three "moderate"-leaning governors or ex-governors all in the running -- Jeb, Kasich, Christie -- with maybe the eventual Iowa winner being a factor, too. 

Full article available here: A Tale of Two Republican Brackets 

Source: NBC News

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